Selurio · Blog
Blog
Investing analysis, education and strategies — no signals, just context.
7 min read
Europe's Recessions Since 2006 on One Map
One number, one rule, one map. Year-on-year real GDP for every European economy shows when crises hit everyone at once — and when the cycle diverges.
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7 min read
What Happens to Companies in a Recession: Half Change Phase
In a calm year a company's life-cycle phase is stable. In a recession it is not: in a panel of 13 Bulgarian firms, about half shift phase. We explain why — and which way they move.
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7 min read
Which BSE Companies Passed 2009 and 2020 Unscathed
Two recessions, 13 public Bulgarian firms. Most took a hit at least once — but a handful passed through both almost untouched. Who they are and what connects them.
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8 min read
Why a Correlation of 0.89 Can Mean Almost Nothing
A correlation of 0.89 sounds like an iron law. But between two things that simply grow over time, a high correlation can mean almost nothing. The difference between levels and growth rates — on a real example.
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8 min read
Saving for a Down Payment on a Home
The down payment is the biggest savings goal for many people. We show how to size the goal, turn it into a monthly contribution, and — most important — where to keep money you will need soon.
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8 min read
Good Debt vs. Bad Debt — How Loans Change Your Net Worth
Not all debt is the same — some loans build your net worth, others quietly eat it away. We show the two tests that tell "good" debt from "bad," and how each one weighs on the balance sheet.
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8 min read
What Your Return Is When You Invest in Installments
When you add money every month, the simple formula (end − start) / start misleads, because the later contributions have barely grown. Here is how to find your real annual return.
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8 min read
Where to Keep Your Emergency Fund in Bulgaria
The emergency fund has one job — to be there on the worst day, in full and at once. So it needs liquidity and safety, not maximum yield. Here is where to keep it and where not to.
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8 min read
The Trap of a High Dividend Yield
An unusually high dividend yield looks like a gift, but it is often a warning — it usually comes from a collapsed price and a threatened dividend. We explain how to read the signal instead of chasing it.
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7 min read
How to Calculate Your Net Worth (and Why It Is Worth It)
Net worth is a single number that shows your real financial position: everything you own minus everything you owe. We explain how to calculate it, what the debt-to-assets ratio is, and why you should track it.
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7 min read
The Emergency Fund: How Much Money You Need for Peace of Mind
The emergency fund is the buffer that keeps you from selling investments at a loss during a crisis. We break down how large it should be, how to measure the gap to your target, and how long it takes to build.
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8 min read
How Much to Save Each Month to Reach Your Goal
Instead of asking "how much will I have," turn the question around: "how much do I need to put in each month for a specific goal." We explain the formula for the required contribution, the role of the return, and why an early start lowers the monthly effort.
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7 min read
Dividend Yield — How to Calculate It Correctly
Dividend yield shows what percentage a stock returns to you in the form of a dividend. We break down the formula, the gross/net difference after tax, and why a high yield is not always a good sign.
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8 min read
ROI for Beginners — How to Measure Whether an Investment Pays Off
ROI shows how much an investment earns relative to what you put in. We break down the difference between total and annualized return (CAGR), why the period is key, and where ROI misleads.
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9 min read
ETF vs. Actively Managed Fund — The Battle of the Fees
An active fund promises an expert who beats the market. An index ETF simply tracks the market — cheaply. We look at the arithmetic of active management and why the vast majority of active funds fall behind over the long run.
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9 min read
What Is TER, and Why 0.2% vs. 1% Is a Huge Difference
TER is a fund's annual fee — a small number you rarely look at. We explain what it includes, what stays hidden outside it, and why the difference between 0.2% and 1% costs tens of thousands of euros.
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8 min read
Tax on ETFs and Cryptocurrencies in Bulgaria
An ETF on a regulated EU/EEA market is often exempt, while crypto is generally taxed at ~10%. We explain the two tracks, keeping records, and why crypto is the greyer zone.
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8 min read
Do I Have to Declare Stock Gains to the NRA?
Exempt from tax does not mean exempt from declaring. When an obligation arises on the annual return, what the deadlines are, and how to calculate what you owe — to verify with the NRA.
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8 min read
Dividend Tax in Bulgaria — 5% in Brief
Dividends are taxed separately from the gain on sale. We explain the ~5% final tax, withholding at source, and foreign dividends — a framework to verify with the NRA.
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8 min read
Growth vs. Value Stocks — Which Strategy Is for You
Growth or value stocks? We compare the two styles on P/E, dividends, and volatility, why leadership rotates, and why for a beginner the broad index often beats picking a camp.
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9 min read
How to Read a Financial Statement (for Beginners)
The balance sheet, the income statement, and cash flow — explained in plain language, plus 6 key metrics and the red flags that give away a troubled company.
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7 min read
The P/E Ratio for Beginners — What It Actually Means
P/E shows how much you pay for every euro of profit a company earns. Understand the formula, trailing vs. forward, what counts as "high" and "low", the traps, and why P/E on its own is not enough.
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9 min read
Coast FIRE and Barista FIRE — The Gentler Paths to Freedom
FIRE is not "all or nothing." Coast FIRE, Barista FIRE, Lean and Fat FIRE are gentler paths to freedom — with worked numbers and who each one suits.
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9 min read
The 4% Rule — How Much You Can Safely Withdraw
The 4% rule ties your savings to early retirement: 25× your annual expenses is your FIRE number. We look at where it comes from, what exactly it says, and why it is not a guarantee.
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9 min read
Your First Steps: How to Buy Your First ETF from Bulgaria
From Bulgaria you have access to the whole world through a single ETF. We explain UCITS, accumulating vs. distributing, TER, and the tax angle — without telling you what to buy.
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7 min read
How to Automate Your Monthly Investing
"Pay yourself first" is not a cliché but a system. Here is how to turn investing into an automatic habit that works without willpower and without emotions.
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8 min read
DCA vs. Lump-Sum Investing — Which One Actually Wins
Historical data says lump-sum investing wins in about two-thirds of periods. But that does not make DCA a mistake — here is when each one makes sense.
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8 min read
The Euro in Bulgaria: What Happens to Prices and Your Savings
A calm look at the switch to the euro: the fixed rate €1 = 1.95583 leva (BGN), how dual pricing works, why the value of your savings does not change, and where the myths go wrong.
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8 min read
What If You Had Invested: The Power of Long-Term Investing
If you had put €1,000 into the broad market years ago — how much would it be today? Why time and compound interest, not timing, do the heavy lifting.
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9 min read
The Great Stock-Market Crashes in History — and What They Teach Us
Black Tuesday 1929, Black Monday 1987, dot-com, Lehman, the Flash Crash, COVID — six crashes and one shared lesson: markets recover, and panic locks in the loss.
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8 min read
Market Seasonality: "Sell in May," the Santa Claus Rally, and Other Patterns
Why November historically beats May, what the Santa Claus rally is, and why September limps — and why these seasonal patterns are a curious history, not a timing strategy.
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8 min read
The Fear and Greed Index — What It Measures and How to Read It
The mood of the market, distilled into a single number from 0 to 100. What stands behind it, how CNN and alternative.me compute it — and why it is a thermometer of emotion, not a "buy/sell" signal.
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8 min read
Why Cash "Under the Mattress" Loses Value Every Year
Cash at home looks safe, but inflation quietly melts it every year. See how much €10,000 buys after 5, 10 and 20 years — and why an emergency fund is still needed.
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9 min read
Inflation in Bulgaria: A Historical Look and What It Means for Your Money
What CPI and HICP are, how inflation is measured here, and what periods of high inflation Bulgaria has lived through — and why real return is the number that matters.
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9 min read
Reinvesting Dividends: The Snowball
Dividends are not just money in your pocket. Reinvested, they buy more shares that pay more dividends — a snowball that makes a huge difference over decades.
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9 min read
Deposit vs. Investing Over 10 Years
The same contribution, two different worlds. We compare a low-interest bank deposit with long-term market returns over 10 years — and when a deposit is still the right choice.
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8 min read
The Rule of 72: How to Calculate Doubling in Your Head
Divide 72 by the annual return and you get how many years it takes your money to double. We explain where the trick comes from, when it is accurate and when it misleads, and the exact 69.3 variant.
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9 min read
The Psychology of Investing: How Emotions Cost You Money
The biggest enemy of your portfolio is not the market but the person in the mirror. Meet the biases that make you buy high and sell low — and how to neutralize them.
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9 min read
Asset Allocation — Your Most Important Decision
Which stocks to pick fascinates everyone, but how much you hold in stocks, bonds and cash matters far more. How to build your mix, when to rebalance, and what the science really says.
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8 min read
Risk and Return: Why Higher Returns Mean Higher Risk
There is no high return without high risk — it is a fundamental law of markets. Understand what risk actually is, what the premium for it is, and why "guaranteed profits" are a red flag.
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8 min read
Diversification: Why You Do Not Put Everything on One Bet
Diversification spreads your money across many assets so your future does not hinge on a single company. How it works, which risks it removes, and why it is "the only free lunch."
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8 min read
What Do ETF Fees Cost You Over 30 Years? A Shocking Tally
A fund's annual fee (TER) looks negligibly small — 0.2% or 1%. But over decades it eats tens of thousands of euros out of your return. We explain the mechanism and run the real numbers.
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9 min read
Investing for Beginners 2026: A Complete Guide
A practical guide from zero: how to set goals, why the emergency fund comes first, how compound interest works, which asset classes to understand, and why DCA and real return matter.
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8 min read
How Many Shares Do You Need for €1,000 of Passive Income a Month?
Passive income from dividends is simple math: capital times yield. We show how large a portfolio and how many shares you need for €1,000 a month — and why a high yield is not a free lunch.
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9 min read
Capital Gains Tax on Shares in Bulgaria 2026 — How to Calculate It
When are stock gains taxed in Bulgaria, and when are they exempt? We explain the framework for individuals — a regulated EU/EEA market, the flat tax, and how to work out the net result. Educational, not tax advice.
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8 min read
What the PEG Ratio Is — and How Peter Lynch Made It Popular
P/E shows how much you pay for earnings but ignores growth. The PEG ratio adds growth to the equation. We explain the formula, the framework of Peter Lynch, and its traps.
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9 min read
Retiring at 40 in Bulgaria — Is It Realistic?
The FIRE movement promises financial independence decades earlier. We look at the 4% rule, the portfolio you need, and the honest math of whether retiring at 40 is achievable in Bulgaria.
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7 min read
Stocks, ETFs, and Cryptocurrencies — The Three Main Asset Classes
A stock, an ETF, and a cryptocurrency are not interchangeable. We explain what each instrument is, the risk it carries, and why diversification matters more than picking a single "winner".
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9 min read
DCA: Why Regular Investing Beats Market Timing
Dollar-cost averaging means investing a fixed amount at equal intervals. We explain the mechanism, honestly compare DCA with lump-sum investing, and show when each one wins.
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6 min read
What Is an Investment and Why It Matters
An investment is exchanging money today for an expected greater value tomorrow. We break down how it differs from saving, the main asset classes, and why time and risk go together.
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7 min read
What Is Your Money Really Worth? Inflation and Savings in Bulgaria
Nominal return lies. We look at real return — how much your money buys after inflation — and why a deposit often loses value every year.
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8 min read
Compound Interest — Why It Is Called the Eighth Wonder of the World
Compound interest is the mechanism that turns small, regular contributions into serious capital. We break down the formula, its three levers, and why time is the most important ingredient.
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