Selurio · Blog
Europe's Recessions Since 2006 on One Map
There is a simple way to see the state of all of Europe at once: colour every country by whether its economy is growing or shrinking versus a year earlier. In calm times the map is mostly green. Drag the timeline back to 2009 or 2020 and the continent turns red.
This article explains the rule behind the recession map of Europe, what the two great waves show, and why synchronised crises are a different kind of risk from divergent ones.
One simple rule
For each country we take the year-on-year real GDP growth rate — how much bigger (or smaller) it is than the same quarter a year earlier, seasonally adjusted. The colour rule is:
| Year-on-year GDP | Phase | Colour |
|---|---|---|
| below 0% | recession | red |
| 0% – 1.5% | stagnation | amber |
| above 1.5% | growth | green |
Why year-on-year and not the famous "two consecutive quarters of decline"? Because for small economies the quarterly sign zig-zags and misses sharp, short shocks. The year-on-year rate cleanly flags the real recessions — 2009 and 2020 — without false signals. The colour scale is fixed, so the same shade means the same thing in every quarter.
The two synchronised waves
Here is what the map shows at the trough of each crisis — the number of economies in recession out of those measured:
| Moment | Economies in recession |
|---|---|
| Global crisis (2009-Q1) | 33 of 36 |
| COVID-19 (2020-Q2) | 35 of 36 |
| Now | 2 of 32 |
Both crises were synchronised — they hit almost everyone at the same time. In 2020 there was practically nowhere to hide: lockdowns struck the whole continent in the same quarter. By contrast, the euro-area debt crisis of 2012–2013 was divergent: the south in recession, the north not.
What stands out
A few details the map makes visible:
- The Baltic states fell deepest in 2009 — Latvia and Lithuania around −14% year-on-year. Their credit bubble burst most sharply.
- Ireland swings implausibly (once −13%, another time +13% in a quarter). The cause is not the real economy but multinationals: intellectual property and aircraft leasing move huge sums through Irish GDP. The modified GNI* measure is more faithful for Ireland.
- The euro area as a whole fell −5.5% in 2009 and −13.1% at the worst quarter of COVID.
Synchronised versus divergent
This distinction matters directly for an investor. When a crisis is synchronised, diversifying within Europe does not help — everything falls together. When it is divergent, geographic spread works: while one market shrinks, another grows.
That is why looking at the cycle "from above" is useful: not to guess the bottom, but to understand whether the current risk is common (systemic, which you cannot diversify away) or local (which you can). Tie it to the phase of a specific company — the macro context changes how you read the firm's number.
What this does NOT mean
- Not official dating. The simple rule is transparent, but euro-area recessions are officially dated by a CEPR committee using a broader set of indicators.
- Not a forecast. The map shows the past and present, not the future.
- Not a recommendation. A macro picture, not a buy or sell signal.
Continue from here
- The recession map of Europe — drag the timeline yourself.
- Half of firms change phase in a recession — what the cycle does to companies.
- What phase is the economy in — each country's quarterly history.
- Company cycle profile — a specific firm's phase in macro context.
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