Selurio · Blog
Which BSE Companies Passed 2009 and 2020 Unscathed
The recessions of 2009 and 2020 were two very different shocks. The first came from the global financial collapse and crumbling external demand; the second from lockdowns. In a panel of 13 public Bulgarian companies (tracked 2006–2021) most firms suffered in at least one crisis. But a few passed through both almost untouched — and that is no accident.
This article shows who held up and why "defensive business" is not one list, but depends on the type of shock.
The two crises hit different sectors
First, the context. If you rank the firms by their drop in revenue, 2009 and 2020 look like two different maps:
| Company | Sector | Revenue 2009 | Revenue 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zlatni Pyasatsi | Tourism | −63% | −28% |
| Hydraulic Elements | Manufacturing | −59% | −12% |
| M+S Hydraulic | Manufacturing | −54% | 0% |
| Albena | Tourism | +3% | −65% |
| Sofia Hotel Balkan | Tourism | −12% | −64% |
2009 flattened the exporters — hydraulics makers selling abroad, and resorts relying on foreign tourists. 2020 did the opposite: it closed the hotels but left manufacturing almost intact. Albena is a textbook case — +3% in one crisis, −65% in the other. See the full BSE recession-vulnerability map with both crises side by side.
Which ones passed through both
Against that backdrop, two firms stand out — they actually grew in both recessions:
| Company | Sector | Revenue 2009 | Revenue 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mak | Manufacturing | +21% | +36% |
| Lavena | Manufacturing | −1% | +8% |
Mak (textiles) and Lavena (cosmetics and perfumery) are manufacturers — a sector that 2009 crushed by −30% on average. But both sell to the domestic and niche markets rather than being cyclical exporters of capital goods. The result: where hydraulics fell −54% to −59%, they grew.
A second group of survivors is medicine and pharma. Momina Krepost and Etropal (medical instruments) took a light hit in 2009 (−10% and −7%), but in 2020 they grew (+23% and +14%) — exactly when tourism collapsed. The sector median in 2020 is +18.5%.
What connects them — not the sector, but the type of demand
It's tempting to say "manufacturing is defensive" or "tourism is risky". But the data shows otherwise: the same sector reacts differently to different shocks. Hydraulics (manufacturing) is among the most vulnerable in 2009; textiles and cosmetics (also manufacturing) are among the most resilient. Tourism weathered 2009 tolerably, but 2020 wiped it out.
What the survivors share is the type of demand behind their revenue: domestic consumption, essential goods, medicine — things people buy regardless of the cycle. What saved you in 2009 (a domestic market) is not the same thing that helped in 2020 (not being a hotel).
The takeaway for an investor
"Defensive" is not a label you stick on once. The diversification that works is by type of shock, not only by sector — because the next recession may resemble neither 2009 nor 2020. Check how a specific company behaves across macro scenarios in the Company cycle profile calculator — switch the scenario from expansion to recession and watch the context change.
What this does NOT mean
- The past is not the future. Resilience in two past crises does not guarantee resilience in the next.
- Not a recommendation. The list illustrates a mechanism; it is not advice on what to buy.
- The numbers are a guide. A sample of 13 firms describes direction, not a probability for a specific company.
Continue from here
- BSE recession-vulnerability map — the two crises, firm by firm.
- What happens to companies in a recession: half change phase — how a crisis moves the life cycle.
- Company cycle profile — the phase and sector context for your firm.
- Growth vs value stocks — the different profiles of risk and growth.
Subscribe
Subscribe to the newsletter and get new calculators and articles straight to your inbox — no signals, no spam.